Friday Football and Other Things

by Ryan

Just a reminder that we will be live blogging the two games on Sunday. Why? Well, we are watching anyway, so why not talk about it? If you want to stop by, or even just pick games in the comments, you're more than welcome. Here are some football links to get you ready for the weekend, as well as a few other things.

- This post on Kissing Suzy Kolber is absolutely terrifying, and also pretty fantastic. They've forever changed the way I look at quarterbacks.

- Question: Where is the "it's tough to beat a team three times" theory coming from? John Clayton wrote about it this week and says this:

This is the fifth time a team will face a divisional rival in the championship round after beating it twice in the regular season. The 2-0 team got the sweep in three of the four previous instances. The 1982 Miami Dolphins won their third matchup against the New York Jets. The 1986 New York Giants swept the Washington Redskins. The 1999 Tennessee Titans went to Jacksonville and got their third win over the Jaguars.

The only team that didn't complete the sweep was the 1983 Seahawks, who lost to the Raiders. In that case, the Seahawks pulled off the upsets during the regular season, but the Raiders were a superior team.

So... the team going for the third win is 75% successfully? Am I missing something here?

- It's good to see Tim Graham is still doing work for ESPN despite the fact that the AFC East died this year.

- Sidney Crosby is out tonight, and holy crap Scott Burnside's giant head. Sometimes I think ESPN is taking their video player a bit too far.

- Getting Caught From Behind has the new Bisons uniforms up. I'm not a huge fan of the "B" but it's better than the first logo on the cap. Everything looks so... busy.

- Use the force, Luke.

- Here, of course, is Simmons' NFL picks column. He has done terrible this postseason, but I'd read it if only to confirm that the only hockey game he's ever watched was during the 1980 Olympics.

- Bolden is likely to play for Arizona on Sunday, which hopefully means Fitzgerald gets free. I'm not exactly rooting for the Buzzsaw that is, I just really enjoy watching him play.

- Just for the record... the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game will wind up like 13-12, right? Last week we thought the final in Tennessee would total under 20 points. We got close. I'd take the under on this one, too.

- With Gruden getting the axe, how many coaches were fired this year that were better than Dick Jauron? Three? Five? All of them? Ugh.

More on Last Night

by Ryan

Because the first post was getting too rambly and there's still plenty to talk about.

- Leadership is still something we hear a lot about with this team, and after last night I think it's pretty obvious just how much of a leader Paul Gaustad is. We will never know just what it's like inside the locker room, but if I'm on his team and he plays the best game of his career last night, I'm listening to what he has to say.

I think it's pretty obvious how much we appreciate his game around here, but I was wondering what you guys thought about all this. I like the way he interacts with officials, the way he talks to the media, the work he puts in off the ice, as well as the effort he puts forth on it. He appears to follow the Chris Drury model, and while he will never have the scoring touch he certainly appears to have the same hockey philosophy. Goose learned from Chris Drury how to be a leader, and to me it looks like he's trying hard to follow that model.

Is all this just in my head, or is there something more to what Paul Gaustad brings to this team? I know Paul Hamilton feels a similar way about Goose, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the two more inspiring wins of the year were games in which he scored twice. It may not seem like a big deal, but to me getting those types of goals and even that fight is a major part of what makes good hockey teams. Having someone set that example is the only way anyone will ever have something to follow, and I've struggled to find good examples since a few big name players have left.



- I thought Rivet and Lydman played really, really well. Butler looked bad on the second goal, but overall the defense was much improved. Teppo made some nice plays, and Hank played one of his best games of the year. He looked more confident with the puck for sure, which is a good sign. Hopefully he has calmed down a bit, he needs to be a big player down the stretch for this team. He's done it before.

- Another big hit photo from the AP. This time the hit was real:



- In case you were wondering about JPPGPCB, I haven't done the totals just yet, but I'll update this post once I check the videos.

We will have some football news and notes to gear you up for the live blog on Sunday, as well as a few more things here and there. Stay warm out there, folks.

House of Cards

by Ryan

If the end justifies the means, then all is forgiven when it comes to Drew Stafford. Somehow a hockey game that began with this:





Ended like this:



An improbable conclusion to an unusual game, and the sort of performance we haven't seen from this team in quite some time. Over the last two seasons we have said time and time again that this hockey team can't expect to win games like they did the first two years coming out of the lockout. The game had changed, their personnel had changed, and this just isn't the same team anymore. It's something I've heard from a lot of different people, but every so often they go out and win a game like this.

The team preview that never got published was going to talk about Dallas as an interesting case study. Injuries and shaky goaltending have turned a team two games away from the Finals last season into one ambling at the bottom of the Western Conference. A better team as of late, it was an opponent the Sabres would be capable of pushing around if they felt like it.

For the first half of the game it appeared they didn't feel like doing much of anything. Buffalo was outclassed in all aspects of the game, outshot 12-5 in the first period and outscored 2-0 thanks to two Drew Stafford penalties. Chris Butler was exposed badly on the second goal, a breakaway pass from Modano setting up Ott for the power play goal. The second period brought the deficit to 3-0, and it looked like a replay of Wednesday night's Blackhawks game if you squinted just right.

But all of a sudden, Buffalo fought back. The turning point was at the 4:47 mark of the second period, with Paul Gaustad getting a bit too aggressive around the Stars net. A few Stars take exception, and Goose does what role players do when his team needs a jump: he drops the gloves.

It was defending himself, of course, but anyone who knows the game understands what Gaustad's trying to do there. The message is clear as day: I'm not giving up on this game. When a team trails 3-0, some fights happen out of frustration or to even some other sort of score. This one was a message to both teams that this game wasn't over, and after the performance in Chicago from the night before that message had to get through to the bench.

Less than ten minutes later Paul Gaustad tips a point shot to put the Sabres on the board. A power play goal, it came just after a near miss with the first power play unit. Vanek sets up the chance and heads off on a change, with Gaustad replacing him as the man setting up the screen in front. It's an immediate downgrade at the position, but Goose gets just enough of Rivet's point shot to get it by Turco and suddenly Buffalo has a pulse.

Still, it's a 3-1 game heading into the third. The Sabres faced the same deficit after two the night before, and less than twenty seconds into the third period Chicago would score to put the game away. Buffalo laid down and gave that game away, but this time looked to be different. They had controlled play for much of the second, and carried that into the third when Jochen Hecht scored just three minutes in.

It was a play just nice enough to get you thinking about a comeback, but 48 seconds later Brad Richards makes it 4-2. Bam. Time to lay down again, right? So many times this year that kind of goal has been the dagger, but Buffalo didn't slow down there. The forecheck continued, the defense got more involved, and Miller kept them in the game. It all paid off when Goose gets in front again, cashing in just as the power play expired. He was everywhere tonight, and another big two goal game for Gaustad keeps this one within reach.

Before you can look at the scoreboard and check the clock, Jaro lets the shot go from the point.



Tie game.

MacArthur got a stick on it and started the forecheck, but credit Jaro for taking a shot when he had an open shooting lane. So many times over the last few games have the defenseman waited for bodies to clog up the lanes. The Sabres don't necessarily need to take more point shots, they just need to take smarter, faster ones. You want bodies in front, but you want the puck to get there in the end. Both Jaro and Rivet created goals with smart shots from the point, and that was the big difference between Wednesday and Thursday night.

Another big difference? The Sabres kept pressing. They smelled blood in the water against a bad team, and instead of sitting back and waiting for overtime they kept the pressure on looking for the winner. It didn't happen, but there was no letting up off the pedal once they found it. There is plenty to criticize about the first half of the hockey game, but once they got it going they did everything right.

Once it got to a shootout it was only a matter of time before Lindy found a guy who could put it in. The Stars' shootout magic is gone, just like their powerhouse status in the West. Turco has struggled too much and Miller was just too good, stopping all but one shooter. Roy made a fantastic move to keep the Sabres alive, and Pominville got to be a hero on a big night. Two points on the road after thirty minutes of relative disaster.

It's the kind of win that can be the turning point of a season, but it still shouldn't be taken lightly. There were a lot of bad signs in that first half of the game, but the performance we saw in the second half was quite impressive. It can't become habit, but it's nice to see a flash of that ability every now and then from a team that used to make it look so ordinary. The difference is that two years ago a win like this was based on talent. This time around it's a resiliency we haven't seen enough of this year.

It could be just another flash in the pan, but the potential is there for it to be a pivot point in a season full of straight lines leading nowhere. This team needs to find its bearings, and last night a Goose may have knocked them back on course.

Live Blog, Nipples, and T-Blades

by Ryan

I'm working on a Stars preview, but there was plenty to talk about other than Dallas, so here's a few things before that gets posted.

- We were debating on whether or not to live blog the football games on Sunday, and we decided to give it a shot. The blog will go up on Sunday at about 3, so stop by if you want to talk some football. Shoot us an email if you want to help us out, or if you want to host it on your site as well. Should be fun.

- I thought this photo was pretty interesting:



From what I remember of this hit, Seabrook took a run at Hecht and missed, so Jochen gave him a shove to reciprocate. From the looks of the picture he blew Seabrook up, which isn't the case from what I remember. Also, I didn't realize Hecht wore t-blades. *crunchcrunchcrunch*

- I was looking for a video of the Stafford hit last night and somehow came across this video about Tim Connolly. I'm not sure what "mrsafinogenov" is driving at, but I swear I'm not "redsox24515". Kind of agree with his assessment of the Max vs. Timmy debate, though.

- Also, I guess this happened last night? Looks like the power play wasn't the only thing exposed during the game.

- Puck Daddy has another item on Afinogenov. To be honest, the more we hear about Max possibly on the move the better. The trade deadline is always more about the buzz created about a player than his actual value. The more he gets pumped up, the better a chance he gets a ride out of town.

- The good news is that even with the loss the Sabres didn't lose much ground to the teams behind them. The Penguins lost 6-3 at home to Washington, and even lost a defenseman and maybe Sidney Crosby for a while. That's a tough home game for sure.

- Looks like Sekera is going to miss some time due to this hit:



Didn't look like a terrible, but WRG is calling it "indefinitely". However, "lower body" isn't exactly specific, so who knows what the issue is.

Dallas preview will be up in a bit. We have a little more time with the 8:30 starts, but it should be up within the hour.

Stafford on Keith

by Ryan

Here's the video of Stafford's hit on Duncan Keith: (Update: shorter with a reverse angle)



Legal? Yeah, I think so. Stafford's not exactly a dirty player, and there was a little elbow there but he wasn't fully extended and certainly wasn't trying to take him out. This was a forward getting back into a play and trying to backcheck, which is exactly what you want to see our of a guy like Stafford. If anything he would have tied up one of the other two Blackhawks, but Keith slid into the slot and right into Drew's path. This wasn't Stafford headhunting, but rather Drew seeing Keith move to the middle and realize he had the best chance to make a play on him. To be honest, I'd rather see any of our forwards hit a guy like that rather than let him go.

Here's what Stafford had to say about the hit:

“I hope he’s OK. I’m not trying to hurt anybody,” Stafford said. “At the same time, you have to keep your head up if you’re going to make a play over the blue line like that.”

I imagine he said that with a "toldja so" attached somewhere, but he seems sincere enough. So why am I even talking about this if it's a clean hit and there's no bad blood between the teams? Well, Ben Eager mostly. Here's what he had to say about it:

"I thought it was a completely dirty hit," Eager said. "That team has been through it. They have seen their fair share of head shots, and that guy doesn't have many hits all year. He's a skilled guy, so I'm sure [the league] won't do anything to him. I'm sure if I was the one who hit him I probably would be sitting out for a while."

Well, I'm sure someone out there will say "that's the same as the Drury hit!", which is completely false. You see, Chris Drury wears his helmet too loose, which is the only reason that hit was so bad. Yeah, that's about the only difference I see, really...

Ko Simpson is Worth...

by Ryan

A lot of people have jumped on the Ko Simpson DUI story lately because it really is pretty funny. His definition of "millions" may be very generous in the high priced world of the NFL, but he may be on to something when it comes to some other football leagues.

For example, I was on TSN yesterday and saw that the CFL salary cap will stay at $4.2 million next season. I had no idea their salary cap was that low. I mean, that's an entire football roster for a little more than one Derek Roy. Considering the NFL salary cap for 2008 was about $116,729,000 and you can see the difference between the two leagues. Just a bit more, you see.

So what was Ko Simpson's contract worth? $2.13 million? I guess that means Ko Simpson is worth about half a CFL team. Not too shabby. He should yell that out next time he's in trouble. It sounds more impressive.

Blowin' in the Wind

by Ryan

No matter how glaring a mistake, there is never one moment that loses a hockey game. Whether a bad goal, a giveaway, or just a missed opportunity; no matter what the situation there is somewhere else that can shoulder the load as well. Even late in a game or in overtime, there are reasons a game gets to that point to look back on. In the hour of hockey played each game, there is never just one mistake or reason for anything.

In tonight's game there were two major reasons for failure. It was a game of two acts, two different periods each with a distinct reason for the loss. This wasn't one of those zero effort Sabres losses, which are frustrating in their own way. This was a game where two different problems killed any momentum the Sabres had and eventually cost them two points.



The game began with the Sabres playing almost perfect hockey. Ruff's gospel of hard work from the forwards was well read, and the forecheck was pretty outstanding. Everyone was hitting and giving the Chicago defenseman a tough time, disrupting their ability to get the puck up ice and capitalize on the speed of their forwards. The first goal was a result of good work on the forecheck and a timely turnover. Teppo keeps it in the zone and gets it to Mair, who makes a nice pass in front to Kotalik. Ales puts a great shot past a diving Huet, and it's 1-0. It's exactly the kind of goal this team can create, especially with the third and fourth lines checking hard.

The rest of the first period saw the Sabres continue to work like this, with chances developed off of a good forecheck and aggressive play. Everyone hit, including Pominville and even Hecht, who avoided a Seabrook check and almost put him into the Sabres bench. Things were going good, and then we remembered that the backup goaltender was in net.



It wasn't a complete disaster, but Sharp's goal is certainly stoppable. The initial save is something you need to get with a team like Chicago, and even then the Sharp shot was a trickle. Goals like this destroy momentum, much like the second goal absolutely freaking obliterated anything the Sabres had going for them. I'm not even going to talk about because I still have no idea what happened. Either way, something like that should not be the cost of playing your backup, no matter how much your defenseman back off. Toews shot should never hit the back of the net.

Still, the game wasn't over there. The Sabres carried the same play into the second period, getting chances and disrupting Chicago's puck moving defenseman. Lydman and Rivet both played well, and the defense kept the Blackhawks scorers in check for the majority of the period. The exception was at the 5:53 mark, when Martin Havlat led a 3 on 1 down the ice and scored high on Lalime. Should it have been stopped? Maybe, but it should have never happened. Sekera made a bad pinch and couldn't get back in time, and Havlat did the rest himself.



The effort still wasn't completely awful. The forwards even backchecked hard, with Stafford knocking Duncan Keith out of the game when he cut across the middle. We'll talk more about the hit later, but Ben Eager didn't like it very much and gets himself six minutes in the box. This is the chance Buffalo needs to get back into the game, and you need at least one goal on three straight power plays, right?

Well, you all know what happens next. One shot in six minutes. If Patrick Lalime gave the game away, the power play unit gave away any chance for a comeback. There was no flow to the play, and even getting into the Chicago zone was an issue. If there was ever a time to use a timeout in the second period, this was the time to do it. Only a Tim Connolly shot sometime in the third penalty got through to Huet, who honestly didn't have to do much tonight.

What's amazing about this stretch is that it never felt like the Sabres had a chance to set anything up. There were some cycles at times, but there was no Vanek tip shot, no backdoor pass to Roy. Nothing. The defenseman couldn't get into open shooting lanes, and shot after shot was blocked by Chicago. The best scoring chance of the entire sequence was when Lalime misplayed the puck and Chicago missed the empty net on a wrap around. It was an absolute disaster, a clusterf*ck of epic proportions, and the Sabres never recovered. I've never seen a worse six minute power play, and that's not a statement based on the rarity of the situation. Suddenly Chicago had a two goal lead and all the momentum in the world to boot.

Sabres fans spent the intermission writhing in pain on the floor while Jason Pominville scratched his face on camera, and 17 seconds into the third Wisniewski puts it in. It was over. A 4-1 deficit against a team that has lost twice at home in regulation all year. The Sabres continued to play aggressive hockey, but it didn't matter. After another wasted power play, the Sabres took the last three penalties of the game and the horn sounded as Seabrook tried to pile on.



This wasn't exactly a wasted effort, but the term "waste" should still be used somewhere. The Sabres played a good period of hockey but still came away from it trailing 2-1. From there everything fell apart, and they never recovered from a few bad bounces and a misplayed shot. Brian Campbell didn't exact vengeance on his former squad, and Patrick Kane didn't put on a show for his hometown team. It wasn't a great team pulling away like against Detroit; this was two evenly matched teams playing a game where one team made a ton of mistakes. Lalime needs to be better, the defense still needs work, and a top ten power play unit needs to score on a six minute power play. It wasn't just one thing, but a deadly combination that gave away another two points on the road.

Tonight's game wasn't lost in just one place, it was lost everywhere.

Crosswinds in Chitown

by Ryan

The best thing to happen to the Chicago Blackhawks in the last five years? Their owner died.



Bill Wirtz passed away last September, and since then Chicago has risen from the ashes of a stagnant franchise to become a real factor in the league once again. Their young players have blossomed, fans can watch home games on television, and big name free agents were brought in to make what was once a sad team finally compete in the New "NHL".

This year a lot has happened in Chicago, with head coach Denis Savard fired four games into the 2008-09 season. Many saw the move as unfair given the time table, but he will always be remembered for the brilliant-but-borderline-racist rallying cry "Commit to the Indian". Expectations where high with the arrival of Brian Campbell and Cristobal Huet, the Winter Classic held at Wrigley Field, and a spike in attendance figures; and so perhaps the move was somewhat panic-fueled. However, Joel "It's only buzzed driving" Quenneville has helped the team turn the corner and managed the goaltending situation very nicely so far.

As a Sabres fan looking at the Blackhawks roster, it's hard to talk about anything but Patrick Kane and Brian Campbell. Kane leads the team in points and has been fantastic in his sophomore season, and Campbell has produced on the blueline as well. He has the occasional issue on the back end, but he was brought in to produce points and that's exactly what he's done.

In fact, his play with the man advantage is a big reason Chicago has improved so much. Of his 29 points, 15 have come on the power play, and he continues to play relatively penalty-free hockey, with only 6 PIM all season. This season Chicago's power play has seen the second largest improvement in the league, currently running at a very good %22.8.

Chicago is much more than just two players, with a lot of guys stepping up on a young team. Duncan Keith has been great on the blueline, and would have made the All Star team if not for Campbell being voted in by the fans. The Hawks have nine players with at least 24 points on the season, and you know a team has secondary scoring when Ben Eager has 8 goals on the year. Forgotten in all the Kane hype is Martin Havlat (who has stayed healthy), Patrick Sharp, rookie Chris Versteeg, and captain Jonathan Toews. All four players have over 30 points and have helped bring a ton of depth to a very young roster.

The Blackhawks are playing very good hockey, but there is still a lot of growing left to do. The Winter Classic was a good example of a great team showing a young team exactly how it's supposed to be done. It's not a knock on Chicago as much as it is a compliment to Detroit, but it only shows what the Blackhawks are capable of if things go well. Their roster is full of RFAs likely to get an increase in salary, but this is a team ready to make a run right now.

Needless to say, it will be interesting to see how they come together down the stretch, and how they stack up against the Sabres tonight.

Introducing...

by Ryan

Ladies and gentleman, I present to you Jason Pominville Postgame Press Conference Bingo.



After a few dozen postgame interviews it all starts to sound the same when it comes to Pommer, and we aim to find out just how similar it all is. We put together 24 commonly used phrases and will examine every interview he gives to see just how many he uses each time. We tried not to pick the obvious ones (stick, puck, goal, etc.) but rather specific Pominvillisms we all know and love. Classics like "playing the system", "get pucks deep", and "desperate team" are all there, along with Jason's absolute favorite word: "definitely."

There are no prizes, (unless you hear him to mention "puppies" a few times, then everybody wins) but this is something we all can have a little fun with. Let's start with tonight's game and see how things go. I'm guessing he knocks out at least half.

Sweating Bullets

The Savior of San Jose takes on the Sabres for the first time in a Blackhawks uniform tonight. If he's got any problems, the All-Star defenseman can always call (716) 839-3638.

Here's lookin' at you kid:

Halfway There

by Ryan

There are many ways to categorize the passage of time. For most people these periods of time are divided by weeks, months, and years. For entire civilizations time has passed by decades and centuries, and each can be broken down into other various periods, eras, and so on. With all those classifications, you would think people would settle with the choices we have, but sports fans have one more category: seasons.

Just as with time in general, seasons can be broken down and examined in a variety of ways. You can take a season month by month, week by week, or even game by game. The slow crawl of a hockey season leaves plenty of time for introspection, but the traditional benchmark for a look back is the halfway point. After 42 games you have a pretty good impression of the league, and can determine which teams are good, which teams are bad, and which teams still have time to be good.

We all know the numbers that represent this team's progress. 21-16-5. 47 points. 7th in the Eastern Conference. These numbers indicate that the Sabres have a good chance of making the playoffs, and after last season's disappointment it's hard to say that wouldn't be progress. The numbers don't lie, Buffalo is in relatively good shape in the playoff race, and a finish just above .500 would get them a spot in the postseason.

However, when you take away the numbers and consider what you've watched this season, it's hard to be satisfied with much. After a fast start the Sabres finished off October with a two game losing streak. Both games were awful performances at home, which would prove to be a trend as time passed. November saw another period of up and down hockey, with a five game losing streak anchoring the month. There were more terrible home games, most notably against Columbus and Philadelphia.

December started with another disaster at home, this time against the Predators. The up and down play continued, with a record hovering just over .500 and a home record on life support. Fans were getting restless, and the team was unable to string more than a few wins together at a time. While the new year has brought a 4-1 record thus far, we still don't know if this team will be able to make a push towards the postseason or if they will continue to play mediocre hockey.

If there is a word to describe the first half, it is "uneven." The effort from individual players as well as the team as a whole has fluctuated game in and game out, and no one is quite sure how to get things to change. The "last straw" of sorts may be the embarrassing 4-2 home loss against Washington on December 30th, but that remains to be seen.

Injuries can be given some of the blame, with captain Craig Rivet missing significant time as well as Tim Connolly, Patrick Kaleta, Jochen Hecht, and Paul Gaustad missing extended periods. This has resulted in a lot of rookies seeing lots of ice time, and while they have played well at times it was quite evident the holes in the lineup hurt the effort.

A discussion of season highlights begins and ends with Thomas Vanek, who led the league in goals for the majority of the season and only remains a few off the pace at the halfway point. He has had a few shaky performances here and there, but no one has played better for the Sabres than Atlas. Derek Roy leads the team in points, but his game has been noticeably lacking for periods of time. Even with his current numbers people expect more of him, and I have a hard time arguing against that sentiment.

The defense has struggled, with previously strong players such as Henrik Tallinder and Teppo Numminen playing poorly. With Rivet missing time the blue line has seen its share of youngsters, with Chris Butler and Mike Weber starting games with the big club. Andrej Sekera has continued to evolve into a top flight defenseman, seeing huge ice time in his first full year with the club.

The rest of the forwards have been a grab bag of moderate growth and utter disappointment. Maxim Afinogenov has been downright awful, and players such as Clarke MacArthur, Drew Stafford, and Daniel Paille have been uneven in their play thus far. A steady forecheck has come from the likes of Gaustad, Mair, and Peters, and Kaleta has done his job when healthy enough to do so.

When I look back on the season I see more missed chances and frustration than anything. So many home games were given away, and at times it seems little effort was put forth in a number of games. The Sabres are still in decent shape, but you can only look back on those lost points and wonder where they could be with a full effort in every game. This team is still looking for an identity and leadership, and until it finds it they will continue to lose games they should win, giving away points in the process.

The good news is that there is reason to think the Sabres will improve down the stretch. Play between the pipes has improved, and a capable backup behind Miller will allow the franchise goaltender to catch his breath in February and March. They have an abundance of forwards giving secondary scoring to the top line, with 15 players registering at least ten points. This means there may be a few chips available for Darcy Regier to make a move. The defense has played better recently, and if they can stay healthy down the stretch they may be able to find a solid top six to roll out on a nightly basis.

If there is anything you can appreciate about the Sabres thus far, it's that they haven't completely shot themselves in the foot this year. Last season's halfway point brought a ten game losing streak that all but killed the postseason. The Sabres have been uneven, but they certainly haven't been bad for an extended period of time.

The Buffalo Sabres are an underachieving team for sure, but not to the point where this season has been a failure. There is room for growth, room for improvement, and room for change if necessary. There is no free agent elephant in the room, no major expiring contracts to get upset about, and no salary cap crunch. For the next 40 games, all anyone has to worry about is playing hockey well enough to play another seven hockey games come April.

Based on that last sentence alone, I'd say things are looking up.

A Few Things For the Night

by Ryan

Another couple of things to get you through the late hours. I'm still working on a midseason report, so look for that tomorrow along with a Blackhawks preview and a little game we are making up on our own.

- I've decided that I need to watch more hockey, so I started last night with the Detroit/Dallas game on Versus. We play the Stars this week, and I figured watching the Wings dismantle a bad team would make me feel better about the Sabres' play on Saturday. Thing is, the Stars played a heck of a game, eventually knocking off the Red Wings in overtime.

It was actually pretty frustrating because they played the perfect style of hockey to beat Detroit. They forechecked like crazy and relied on a few chances taken by the defenseman to cash in. Both goalies played great, but it took a starter bringing his "A" game and a full team effort to take down the Stanley Cup Champions. If a team like Dallas can do it with all their injuries and problems, why can't the Sabres?

The good news is that we're one of the first hits when you Google search "Valedictorian of Awesome", so I guess everything's not lost.

- A few days ago Side of Pork mentioned that the Sabres' schedule doesn't list local TV channels for the West Coast road trip coming up. If the January 27,28,31 and February 2 game isn't on local TV I would be really surprised, but just in case my friend Dave found us a good place to find them. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

- ESPN is already starting with the "Braketology"? Really? That's like saying Tim Tebow is one of the greatest football players of all time. Oh, I see what you mean.

- Miller had an interesting quote from the Sabres' site.

“It’s kind of like a golf swing. That’s how I try to explain things to people. You go to the range and you’re thinking about six different things: Where is the weight on this foot, back hinge, the elbow, all this stuff. Goaltending is a lot like that. My stance, my hand positioning, where I am in the crease, how much I challenge, my glove side not being too low or too high, trying to get dialed in. The last few games I’ve felt good… I’m starting to feel more like where I think I need to be.”

I've never heard goaltending described like that, but it does make a lot of sense. There are so many things that can go wrong for a goalie, and what may look to us as bad positioning may just be a glove an inch too high. It's good to hear that Miller is confident in what he's doing now to talk about it, because we need him to round into shape for the playoff run. Mike Harrington says Lalime gets the start tomorrow, but this road trip will be a busy one for #30.

- I'm debating how to handle the playoff push this year. I'm guessing we take each day and recap what the teams close to us did the night before, as well as keep the standings on the sidebar somehow. Does anyone have any requests or suggestions on how to handle it differently?

Sabres with the M

by Ryan

On Friday I was looking through some game recaps and found out that Jason Arnott played in his 1,000th career game back on December 20th. He was honored with a silver stick by the NHL before the game on Thursday against Pittsburgh, which is a pretty cool way of recognizing the feat. Only about three percent of all NHL players will reach that mark, so it certainly is a unique thing for players.

Oddly enough, on Saturday Brian Rolston played in his 1,000th game as well, which means a silver stick is coming his way, too. That got me thinking about the silver stick and how many of them have been given out to Sabres players. The current team is fairly young, but we've seen some great players come our way over the years. Here's what I came up with through a little digging.

There are only two players who have played their entire career with the Sabres and totaled over 1,000 games. The first is, of course, Gilbert Perrault (1191), while the other is Craig Ramsay (1070). Mike Ramsey is third in games played with 911, but he did amass 1,000 games played with seasons in Pittsburgh and Detroit.

Other than Ramsey there are quite a few Sabres who have totaled silver stick-worthy careers split with different teams. Players such as Phil Housley, Doug Gilmour, Tim Horton, Pierre Turgeon, James Patrick, Dale Hawerchuk, Stu Barnes, Chris Gratton, Alexei Zhitnik, Eddie Shack, Don Lever, Petr Svoboda, and Mike Foligno are all on the list. I'm sure I missed someone, but those are the players that stood out.

Of course the big question is if there are any current Sabres at or near 1,000 games played. Let's take a look at the active roster.

Teppo Numminen- 1357
Craig Rivet- 769
Jaroslav Spacek- 663
Jochen Hecht- 580
Maxim Afinogenov- 555
Toni Lydman- 554
Adam Mair- 448
Tim Connolly- 446
Ales Kotalik- 405
Henrik Tallinder- 358
Derek Roy- 314
Thomas Vanek- 287
Jason Pominville- 264
Paul Guastad- 243
Andrew Peters- 196
Daniel Paille- 160
Drew Stafford- 144
Nathan Paetsch- 134
Clarke MacArthur- 97
Matt Ellis- 88
Andrej Sekera- 81
Patrick Kaleta- 70
Mike Weber- 18
Mark Mancari- 10
Chris Butler- 10
Nathan Gerbe- 6
Tim Kennedy- 1

Teppo is the only active Sabre with more than 1,000 games played, and he passed that mark years ago. Craig Rivet is next in line at 769, but he's still got a long way to go. There is plenty of youth on the team, but only two players with permanent roster spots (Sekera and Kaleta) have less than a full season under their collective belts. Of course all this will change tomorrow, but I thought it would be fun to look at the team and it's history through this particular milestone.

Oh, and our good friend Miroslav Satan is currently sitting at 990 career games played. Let's hope his silver stick is a little tarnished and demands to be its own agent.

Expiration Date

by Ryan

If you're a Sabres fan, the most popular number you've heard this year is 3.5 million. That's how much both Tim Connolly and Maxim Afinogenov make this season, and more importantly, how much won't be on the payroll next fall. It is more than likely that both players aren't re-signed. In fact, it would take an incredible offensive explosion for even a second look at Max, and a borderline miracle to get Connolly through the rest of the season unscathed.

Regardless, the end of this season will probably bring the departure of both these players, and maybe even Ales Kotalik. With this departure looming, many fans have been talking about trading either player. The reasons are pretty simple: they are both leaving anyway, so why not get something in return? Max has never reached his full potential, and since the 05-06 season he has been a complete letdown. Tim Connolly has also missed almost 250 games in six seasons with the Sabres, and has frustrated fans and management alike with each trip to the Injured Reserve.

It is for those same reasons, however, that many feel moving either player would be quite difficult. It's no secret that Afinogenov has been a mess all season, and with him in the press box and whispers of no GM wanting him, it is quite possible that Max plays out the rest of the year in a Sabres uniform. The same can be said about Connolly, who many feel is just too great an injury risk to take a chance on. Whoever trades for either player would want production out of him no matter what, and that's something that both can't guarantee at this point.

This has all been discussed before, but on Sunday Puck Daddy linked to an interesting article about expiring contracts. It's from Friday, but two of players discussed in it are the Sabres mentioned above. Here's what David Staples wrote about how the "expiring contract" concept could work in the NHL:

It's an easy concept to grasp. Each year any one team has players who are in the last year of their contracts. For instance, Dwayne Roloson of the Oilers is in the final year of his $3.7 million a year deal. After this year, Roloson's contract will no longer count against the Oilers' salary cap number. So this year, he has an expiring contract.

Other Oilers with expiring contracts are Mathieu Garon, Kyle Brodziak, Denis Grebeshkov, Erik Cole and Ladislav Smid. Between all of them, they get more than $10 million a year in salary. When their contracts expire, the Oilers will have that money to either re-sign these players or sign up other players.

The importance of an expiring contract is this: When most teams are pressed up against the upper limit of the cap -- as tends to happen when the cap number drops or stagnates -- teams will be desperate to create cap room for themselves heading into each summer, into each July free agent signing period. The more big dollar expiring contracts a team has, the more amount of cap space it will have to make a big free agent signing.

It's an interesting concept, and it's something that does happen in another cap-controlled league. For example's sake, he takes the Oilers and Maxim Afinogenov, among others.

Afinogenov of the Sabres has only scored two goals in 34 games this year, but if you can pick him up for cheap, or maybe for a long-term contract player such as Dustin Penner, then that's a deal the Oilers might well want to consider, under the right circumstances (Edmonton out of playoffs, Sabres making a playoff run).

In the NBA, the attractiveness of expiring contracts has made hot trade items out of players who are no longer productive, guys who do little but sit on the bench and pick up a fat paycheque. Teams pressed up against the cap, but hoping to making a big free agent signing in the summer, acquire them for the cap space they will soon create.

This isn't a perfect example because it's very unlikely Darcy Regier takes on a contract like Penner's, but the concept is very intriguing. If the economy remains weak in the future, we may see GMs make roster moves with this strategy in mind. As Staples said, it would bring an interesting value to players who lack much on the ice.

The concept isn't perfect, and as a commenter stated on the original post, the concept works in basketball because teams have very deep benches and players can go entire games without seeing the floor. Roster spots are more precious in the NHL, and many more players see the ice on a given night compared to the NBA. The fact of the matter is that if you trade for someone, he plays out the season on your team.

However, as time goes on we will see how the salary cap changes the way business is done in the NHL. There are a ton of big contracts hitting the market this summer, and if the economy continues to stumble the cap will make things very, very interesting. The "excelsior" mentality no longer applies to the pay ceiling, and it looks like some GMs are going to struggle with the deals they made in seasons past.

Either way, it's an ridiculously interesting concept. Does this make Max and Timmy more "tradeable" in any way, or is this shift in the system too unlikely for GMs to consider?

Five "A"s, Rickey Henderson, and Awesome School

by Ryan

Just a few things to get you through the night. We plan on staying busy this week despite the break in the schedule. Look for a mid-season review and something special for Jason Pominville, as well as a few other things before we see Chicago. I'd like to keep up the pace and preview each team the Sabres face, but I can't promise anything. At least one for the Blackhawks, that's for sure.

- John Vogl had a good article about the Red Wings today. It's a nice summary of what makes them so good, including all the history surrounding the team. People always talk about what makes an attractive team to potential free agents, and Detroit pretty much covers every category when it comes to that. It's why Hossa went there for less, and it's why more and more players will give them a chance. Oh, and their GM is a wizard. I'm really curious to see how this offseason will turn out for the Red Wings, but I doubt they struggle for very long.

- Ilya Kovalchuk was named captain of Atlanta after over a season and a half without one. Check out the seven captains they've had in team history:

Kelly Buchberger, 1999–2000
Steve Staios, 2000–01
Ray Ferraro, 2001–02
Shawn McEachern, 2002–04
No captain, 2004–05 (Lockout)
Scott Mellanby, 2005–07
Bobby Holik, 2007–08
No captain, 2008-09
Ilya Kovalchuk, 2009-present

Not a great list, but I guess anything is better than five assistants. If you thought the rotating captain was bad, try having five people kind of in charge. Crazy.

- Muckers and Grinders has a solid post about Ryan Miller, in which she describes Miller taking faceoffs with Goose and Pominville at Friday's morning skate. As long as Goose doesn't use the "Selling out so hard I'm down on one knee" move and knocks Miller unconscious, I'm fine with it.

- Anytime I hear about Rickey Henderson I think about our first Internet friend at Riding With Ricky. Therefore, we have to say congratulations to both when Rickey is voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

- The color guy on Versus just said Pavel Datsyuk would be "the Valedictorian of Awesome School." It's been a fantastic game so far that I'll talk about tomorrow, but I just wanted to make sure that went on record.

- As far as the football this weekend... I wasn't nearly as entertained by these for games as I was the last four. Everyone I watched the two games on Sunday with fell asleep between them, and not because we are all 80. Either someone chloroformed the room, or the Eagles put us to sleep. Go with the latter. I think the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game will be sleepy as well, but still interesting; and the Buzzsaw/Eagles game will be interesting for a completely different reason. Larry Fitzgerald, for one, but the Deadspin angle will also be fun.

On Kane and Crazy

by Ryan

Please read this before the Buffalo News' archives sucks it out of the Internet forever. Don't think about who wrote it, just consider the message it is sending out and the player giving the quotes. I know most people rarely like what Bucky Gleason has to say, but this one's an interesting example of his work.

When you are dealing with a niche sport, the marketing buzzwords change completely. Hockey is one of those niche sports, and it's clear that the NHL is no longer a part of the "Big Four" leagues. There is the Big Three (NFL, MLB, NBA) and then there is hockey, stuck in the middle of the sports that matter to almost everyone and the sports that matter to individual markets. The NHL matters in lots of markets and Canada, and that's what puts it in between.

Anyway, one big buzzword with the NHL is "youth hockey", and that's why what Bucky is saying here is important. The thesis of his article is "calm the f#$k down, people", and I admit he makes a good case for it. However, I think there is something to be said for the other side of the argument, which he seems to ignore. Let's take what he says about youth hockey parents:

Are you one of them? Hockey parents for years have had a reputation for being over the top, but it appears to be getting worse. For all the good Blackhawks winger Patrick Kane brought to the region over the past two years, his success could very well be the worst thing to happen to a growing population of parents who think Little Johnny is the next one.

I’m not trying to squash the dreams of kids, who should pursue their goals so long as they’re enjoying the game. This is for parents who believe they serve breakfast to future Division I players or NHL prospects without having a clue what it takes to get there.

Exactly. Bucky's main point is that hockey parents go way too far in pushing their kids. This is true of almost every youth sports parent, but with hockey it seems especially evident. There isn't much research behind this, but it may have something to do with the temperature of rinks and the sticker shock of a Synergy. That's a volatile combination, especially when your child is playing the team that takes more hacks than Adam Dunn.

Here's where Bucky starts to lose track: the numbers.

Here’s an invitation to reality. Twenty-two players from Western New York are playing Division I hockey. It appears to be an impressive number, but is it?

It’s less than 1.5 percent, three of every 200. Basically, your kid needs to be one of the top players in his age group across the entire region to play D-I, assuming you didn’t suffocate his passion before high school. By the way, of the 22, many were given only partial scholarships, some none at all.

You think Little Johnny is going pro? Think again. High school players alone are in the minority, and less than one in 300 will be drafted by an NHL team. More than 200 players are selected every year in the draft, but only about 40 will ever reach the NHL.

All of the above is true. However, we're already talked about some pretty impressive numbers when it comes to NHL talent coming from New York. Let's go back to Mirtle's original post here.

The rest are mainly from good ol' Western New York, where the Sabres have made quite an impact and are a big, big part of the sporting landscape. Buffalonians in the NHL? Patrick Kane. Lee Stempniak. Todd Marchant, Patrick Kaleta and Nick Foligno.

Add in this stretch between Buffalo and Utica, and you've got a few more from the pipeline. Players from this 200-mile I-90 corridor (which I realize stretches outside of WNY) also include Robbie Schremp, Marty Reasoner, Jay Leach, Brian Gionta, Tim Connolly, Erik Cole, Ryan Callahan and Dustin Brown.

These days, there is a ton of high school hockey being played throughout New York, a relatively new development. Steve Manson, editor of the Western New York Hockey Magazine, recently called the state "the biggest and best kept secret in USA Hockey."

Some credit the fact there are a lot of former Sabres settled in the area, working as coaches, while others point to the success of minor-league hockey in Binghamton, Syracuse, Rochester, etc.

Twenty years ago, New York born players made up just 4 per cent of the U.S. population in the NHL, and last season, that number hit 15 per cent.

This isn't pitting the two sets of statistics up against each other, but rather looking at it from the other side. The few players that do make it to the NHL from Western New York is still a significant amount in the bigger picture, and each player that does make it is a marketing dream for the Sabres. Other than divisional games, which home games get more interest than games against teams with former players and homecomings for local boys?

Factor in those games with the "youth hockey" push and you have a bustling hockey market. Youth hockey has been cited as a big reason hockey works in Dallas. How much did we hear about youth hockey during All Star weekend in Dallas two years ago, and how often do we hear it cited as a reason hockey is struggling in Florida? Getting kids involved in a niche sport is something we hear about constantly, and while it may not always work for soccer, it seems to be a bit more effective for hockey. Getting kids on the ice instead of a basketball court means they grow up idolizing Derek Roy over LeBron, and makes them a hockey fan for life.

Rivet's comments are spot on, the game should be about having fun. For everyone involved, hockey should be fun. It's why I watch, and although I've never seriously played hockey I love playing pickup or even just the occasional skate. When I was little there was nothing I looked forward to more than turning on Empire at seven to watch the Sabres play. It was my way of getting involved in the game, but for some it takes playing it themselves.

I understand what Gleason is trying to say through the numbers and Rivet's comments, but I think he's missing the point of youth hockey just as much as some hockey parents do. There will always be people who take things too far, and every few months we hear of parents wreaking havoc down at the local rink; but that doesn't outweigh the inherent good that youth hockey brings. For every parent that thinks their son or daughter is the next Thomas Vanek there are teams full of kids who just want to pretend to be him, if only for a few minutes.

For decades there have been overbearing parents trying to make their children superstars. I'm sure Little Suzy Saxophone's parents aren't worried about fun, either; and Bobby Basketball probably wants to see his friends, too. These parents aren't going anywhere, and if they won't listen to their own children when they ask for ice cream they certainly won't listen to you preach.

It's a solid article, but if these people really are crazy, what makes you think they are going to change? What's the definition of insanity again? Right.

The Difference

by Ryan

Two chances in Saturday night's game. Which one gets the red light?



Or... this one:



Yeah, I thought you'd pick that one.



They are two completely different plays, but when compared side by side they can summarize Saturday quite nicely. The Sabres' chance is a 2 on 1 operated by Hecht. Not a lot of speed, it looked iffy the entire way, and the pass to Pominville was led just a bit too far. It goes up on end and Pominville never gains proper control of it, so no shot gets off. It's just one opportunity, but one late in a tie game with very few chances for the Sabres.

The Detroit opportunity was just the result of hard work. A good cycle and a great shot/pass from Hudler puts it right on the tape, and with Miller down Samuelsson doesn't miss. There may be a bit of luck involved, but when Detroit got good chances they made them count, and less than 30 seconds later Hossa puts the game away. A good effort from Miller wasted in the dying minutes of a winnable hockey game.

What's interesting about these two scoring chances is that their results reflect exactly how I felt watching the game. There was never a doubt in my mind that Detroit was going to win. I kept saying that "the hammer is going to drop", and with each chance and each big save I wondered when it would happen. I never felt that way with the Sabres' chances, the few of them that they had.

The Sabres were outshot 48-22 on Saturday, and the first two periods they had single digit shot totals. It's obvious that the effort necessary to beat a team like Detroit just wasn't there, and even with Miller standing on his head they wouldn't be able to get that second goal. It should go down as a frustrating game, but to be completely honest I never expected them to be in a position to win in the first place. The Roy line produced a crash-the-net goal and nothing more all night, and the few chances the Sabres had weren't a problem for Ty Conklin.

I should probably be upset with the effort the team showed this weekend, but they did split the weekend series with very little going for them. Miller was great against one good team and one great team; and a loss that late in the third is frustrating I can't say it was unexpected. Despite the anemic play in front of Ryan, the Sabres are slowly climbing the standings while the teams around them continue to struggle.

It's not really progress and the schedule is still tough, but the Sabres are better off then they were a week ago. I guess that's all you can ask for on a Monday in January.

Reviving the second ranked offense

By Jon

The coaching carousel continues to turn, but one of the hot candidates was taken off the market when the Broncos reached an agreement with former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels last night. While he was certainly a hot commodity and a chic candidate for several coaching vacancies, Denver's decision seems to be more than a little curious.

Let's take a look at Denver's regular season team stats, shall we?

Team offense (NFL Rank in parentheses)
Overall rank: 2
Total yards: 6333 (2)
Yards/game: 395.8 (2)
Total rush yards: 1862 (12)
Rush yards/game: 116.4 (12)
Total pass yards: 4471 (3)
Pass yards/game: 279.4 (3)
Points/game: 23.1 (16)

Now without even looking at the defensive numbers, you know they are going to be atrocious. How does a team ranked 2nd in team offense finish with a losing record? Terrible defense, that's how. Just for kicks, lets take a look at the defensive side of the ball.

Team Defense (NFL Rank in parentheses)
Overall rank: 29
Total yards allowed: 5993 (29)
Yards/game allowed: 374.6 (29)
Rush yards allowed: 2337 (27)
Rush yards/game allowed: 146.1 (27)
Pass yards allowed: 3656 (26)
Pass yards/game allowed: 228.5 (26)
Points allowed/game: 28.0 (30)

Now, common sense should tell everyone with half a brain that the Broncos need someone to come in and shore up the defense. Apparently the Denver brass missed the memo. McDaniels' defensive experience? Two years as a "defensive coaching assistant" in New England, for what it's worth.

According to Chris Mortensen at the WWL, Denver owner Pat Bowlen wanted a fresh, young face to take control of the team, but if you were planning on hiring someone with an offensive background, why did you fire Shanahan in the first place? His offensive approach seemed to be working quite well. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Therein lies another gripe: McDaniels' age. He's 32. He looks like he's about 23, tops. Now, I'm going to go way out on a limb here and say that the seven players on the Denver roster that are 32 or older may have a bit of an issue taking orders from their peer, especially after playing for one of the most respected coaches of all time. When Mike Shanahan took over as Denver's coach, Josh McDaniels was 18. I'm just sayin'.

Maybe Bowlen wanted some of the Belichick magic to rub off on his team? I mean, that's worked out for other teams hiring Patriot assistants, right? Oh wait ... no it hasn't. The Belichick coaching tree isn't exactly Walshian, now is it?

Maybe McDaniels will succeed. Maybe he will hire some hotshot defensive coordinator that will make all of Denver's problems go away. But are you sending the right message to your fans when you fire a future hall-of-famer that has been at the helm for fourteen years and replace him with some young punk with far less impressive credentials? Probably not.

Don't worry Broncos fans, at least he's not Dick Jauron.

Jonny Flynn Says Hello

by Ryan



Mike Rosario says ow ow ow.

Easy Answer

by Ryan

No matter what you write or how well you write it, there are always people who get the wrong message out of it all. It's no one's fault, really, there are just so many elements of human communication that sometimes a signal gets crossed and the wrong impression is left. For example, here is what Bill Simmons had to say about the Cardinals/Panthers game that took place tonight:

Something wacky is happening with these Saturday night playoff games. The NFL didn't start having them until January 2002, the month when the Raiders traveled to New England for the "Snow Game" (what Pats fans call it) or "Tuck Rule Game" (what Oakland fans call it). Either way, it was one of the 10 most memorable playoff games ever played and the most famous "push" of the Double-Ohs. We've seen at least one memorable Saturday nighter every January since; the underdogs covered the past five in a row; and 10 of those 17 Saturday nighters were memorable in some way. Here's the complete list:

2002, Round 2 (N.E. by 3 at home): Pats 16, Raiders 13. The Snow Game. (Hah!)

2003, Round 1 (G.B. by 6.5 at home): Falcons 27, Packers 7. Vick rolls through Lambeau and murders everyone's two-team Packers-Jets tease; everyone finally sees through the "Favre is a big-game QB" myth.

2004, Round 2 (N.E. by 6 at home): Pats 17, Titans 14. Two degrees, minus-11 wind chill. Brrrrrrr. Adam Vinatieri somehow kicks a rock of a football 46 yards for the winning points (his greatest non-"Snow Game" kick).

2005, Round 1 (S.D. by 6 at home): Jets 20, Bolts 17 A classic Schottenheimer playoff collapse. Just classic. Can't somebody hire him again? Please?

2006, Round 2 (Denver by 3 at home): Broncos 27, Pats 13. An atypical Brady stinker combined with Champ Bailey's bizarre 99-yard interception TD in which Ben Watson stripped him at the goal line but the refs ruled it a score. I'm still bitter.

2007, Round 1 (Seattle by 2 at home): Seahawks 21, Cowboys 20. The Romo Game (if you're from Dallas) and the Babineaux Game (if you're from Seattle). Regardless, this was a Pancreas Punch Game for Cowboys fans.

2007, Round 2 (N.O. by 5 at home): Saints 27, Eagles 24. A rollicking semi-shootout with a fantastic post-Katrina Superdome crowd.

2008, Round 1 (Jax by 2.5 on road): Jaguars 31, Steelers 29. The game that earned David Garrard $60 million.

2008, Round 2 (N.E. by 13.5 at home): Pats 31, Jaguars 20. 19-0 was in secret jeopardy for a while. Surprisingly tense.

2009, Round 1 (Indy by 1.5 on road): Chargers 23, Colts 17. The Mike Scifres Clinic, as well as the game that probably will get the OT rules (thankfully) overturned in some way.

So that's 10 memorable Saturday night playoff games. What's the reason? I couldn't possibly tell you. You got me. I'm stumped. Now throw this in …

Thanks to a tip from Mike Wilkening (an editor at Pro Football Weekly), we're also working on a streak in which three straight double-digit Round 2 favorites failed to cover: the '05 Colts (gave 10 to Pittsburgh, lost by three); '07 Colts (gave 10.5 to San Diego, lost by four) and '07 Patriots (gave 13.5 to Jacksonville, won by 11). Since 1990, double-digit favorites in Round 2 are 9-7-1 against the spread and 12-5 straight up. Of those nine covers, the favorite won by 17-plus in every game. Of the six favorites favored by between 10 and 11 points since 1990, four of them ('95 Niners, '95 Chiefs, '05 Colts, '07 Colts) lost outright; the other two ('91 Bills, '01 Rams) won by a combined 62 points.

Here's why I'm telling you all of this: If you like the Panthers, you'd better really like them.

Before I read this I believed tonight's game would be competitive. The deep threat of Fitzgerald and Bolden was for real, and at the very least this game could develop into a bit of a shootout if things go right. After having all that laid out for me, I only believed this more. I suppose that's my initial feelings being positively reinforced, who knows.

Either way, after all that reasoning and hard work he goes and picks the Panthers.

Well, I really like them. The weekend couldn't have worked out better, actually: A limited Arizona team broke two big plays, got a fluke fumble-return TD and took advantage of a deafening home crowd to overachieve against a young team that never caught a break. Now the Cardinals are on the road -- where they went 3-5 this season and got blown out by the Jets, Pats and Eagles by the combined score of 151-62 -- and playing 2008's best home team (8-0), a well-balanced, well-coached team that will run it down their throats. What am I missing?

A lot, I guess. This is in no way a "I'm smarter than Bill Simmons" post, in fact it's quite the opposite. I just think it's interesting that the exact same information laid out and interpreted by two different people could come to two completely different conclusions. Based on our preconceived notions I suppose this shouldn't be shocking, but I find it really interesting that he did all that and still couldn't convince himself to change his pick.

Did he really "miss" something, or is there something more to it? Is the NFL at a point where anyone can beat anyone anywhere, or is there something about a time slot that changes how games are played? All I thought was that the game would be entertainingly close, and I was dead wrong. There was never any doubt, but for the other team. Everyone loves to say they are right, but can anyone really say they expected "Arizona 33, Panthers 13"?

If not, then I think there's plenty to talk about here. Does anyone have any ideas about... any of that before I start talking about hockey again? Just with expectations and playoff football, I suppose. Feel free, that's all I'm watching all day.