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Why (Insert Pending Sabres UFA) Will Make "The Leap": Ales Kotalik

by Ryan

One of the biggest story lines of this Sabres season will be on the front end. Three Sabres, all with similar situations, contracts, and expectations, will be free agents come July 1st.

With a new crop of players on the rise in Portland and patience running out, it appears these three (Tim Connolly, Maxim Afinogenov, and Ales Kotalik) will be fighting each other for a new contract with the team. We will look at each player's chances for success over the next few days.

Next up: Ales Kotalik.



Reasons Ales Kotalik will make "The Leap"

- Contract year. Last time Ales had a payday due he notched 62 points. It was his fourth year in the league and he had to prove something to get a new deal. His shot developed and he became a big time goal scorer, playing in all 82 games that year. We haven't seen that Ales since.



- That shootout move, when done correctly, is absolutely deadly. Very few goaltenders can stop it, and only Brodeur comes to mind as anyone who has consistently made that save.

- His shot. When Ales shoots the puck he has the best shot on the team. When he shoots. He also has to make sure not to break his stick. Nike Bauer has made more money off his aborted shots than on Ernie Davis' shoes. If he keeps his shot on target and his stick in one piece, he could have another big year just in time.

- Last year he scored 12 power play goals, a career high. For as mediocre as our power play performed, Ales made a good impact.

- Shots on goal. Last year his total shots rose above 200 for only the second time in his career. With the speed he has on that shot, it's only a matter of time before it hits the twine. If he shoots, he scores.

- Leadership? The way I see it, if he stays on the team until March chances are he will have worn the "C". Hey, they are going to run out of players at some point, right?


Reasons Ales won't make "The Leap"

- Inconsistency. There are a lot of people that hate that term, but you have to use it when talking about Ales. There were times last year he completely dropped off the map. I remember one game I didn't realize he was left off the roster with the flu. I was so used to barely noticing his shifts I just kind of forgot about it. Ales needs to have a steady presence on the team, not just a few good games.

- He may have already peaked. Over the last three years his average time on ice hasn't changed, but his points have leveled off around 40. It's a small sample size in a short career, but he won't get another $2 million+ contract as a 40 point scorer, at least not on this team.

- Moving on may be for the best. A change of scenery may do him some good, and if he does start to light the lamp he may not finish the year on the Sabres. The Sabres have too many forwards to begin with, and if they are able to sell one high and shore up the defense or farm system, Ales may be the best candidate for it. They can't get market value for Afinogenov, and injury problems are a red flag for Connolly. If a move is to be made, Ales may be their best option.

- Predictability. Teams know what will happen with Kotalik on the point with the man advantage. Many have adjusted to watch for his big shot and it has caused him to get more creative with his shot selection. His shootout move is also very well known, and if goaltenders can get over and he can't develop another option, suddenly his two biggest weapons are rendered obsolete.

Any thoughts on Ales? After tomorrow's final entry we will have a poll up, so gather your thoughts and let us know what you think.

Perfection

by Ryan

I've been debating how to write this all day. There is a large part of me that wants to talk about Wednesday night and how, for just a slight moment, the Sabres were perfect. Since that seems to be a bright spot, let's get that out of the way.

When you play a team eight times a year, you start to notice little things about them. One of those things I noticed about the Habs was how much pressure they put on our defensemen when killing penalties. They tried at all costs to prevent the point shot, something that intensified when it was obvious that the Sabres, down 2-0, would be pressing.

This pressure put on the blue line essentially crippled how the power play operated. Montreal knew what they were doing by allowing the Sabres to work down low, having faith in Carey Price to come up big when it counted. He did, and so when the Sabres went on the power play late in the third something drastic had to be done.

A 4 on 3 power play becomes a 5 on 3 when Miller goes to the bench. The faceoff is won perfectly by Roy, and the cycle begins. Kotalik starts along the boards but as the D cycles down low the point opens up. He slides into position before the Habs could put a man on him. He was the big shot they worried so much about. Before anyone gets within two strides of him the puck is in the net.

The play itself, taken out of the game's context, is perfect. Forget the chance taken with the goalie pulled, forget the three goal deficit. Ales Kotalik's goal on Wednesday was a set play executed to perfection. It is the perfect use of a television timeout, to take a risk in a game you absolutely need in order to survive. Of course if it fails there will be plenty to answer for, but having faith in your players to execute is what coaching is all about.

To me, this play sums up the entire season. A lone play in the 81st game of the year personifies everything about this year that I have both loved and hated, all at once. The ability of this team is there, plain and simple. Talent, skill set, whatever you want to call it, the ability to execute is there and is downright impressive when shown.

However, that ability is far too scarce and has taken too damn long to show up. There were too many "almosts" this year, from Tim Connolly's almost moves to the countless sub-40 minute performances by a young and at times downright stupid team.

The 07-08 season will go down as the one that brought us the Winter Classic, Captain of the Month, and a general awareness of the term "hyperhydrosis". Still, I have the nagging feeling that I will remember that play more then any other in years to come. When I think back to why this season was a monumental failure, what happened within that 20 seconds and how many times it didn't happen so much more often will be there to keep me from wondering very long.

Sometimes, it really is the little things.

Sunday Morning Inquiry

Ales Kotalik: Dead to you, or back to where he was last Sunday when you forgot he wasn't playing at all?

Discuss.

Tweaking the roster (and Kotalik's knee)

By Chris

The Buffalo Sabres sent three more players down to Rochester in preparation of Friday's Opener against the New York Islanders.

Forwards Mark Mancari, Marek Zagrapan and defenseman Michael Funk will be all suiting up for the Amerks to start the season.

Adrej Sekera seems to have that seventh defenseman spot locked up with Teppo Numminen out of the line up for the foreseeable future. Practicing with the Sabres will be beneficial to his development, even if it only for a few months.

Also staying up with the big club is winger Clarke MacArthur. "The General" will be filling in for Ales Kotalik, who may miss the opener with a knee injury. The sniper led the Americans in scoring last season with 63 points. Hopefully he'll be able to take full advantage of the limited ice time he'll see.

So we'll probably see this on opening night, judging from Monday's practice:
Vanek-Roy-Afinogenov
Hecht-Connolly-Pominville
Paille-Gaustad-Stafford
MacArthur-Mair-Ryan
Peters

Tallinder-Campbell
Spacek-Lydman
Kalinin-Paetsch
Sekera

Miller
Thibault

Is it Friday yet?

Your Guide to the Sabres Offseason 33 1/3

By Chris

In the third and final installment (for now) of this guide, I examine the restricted free agents, the fourth line, Ty Conklin, Drew Stafford and Dainius Zubrus.

The Restricted Free Agents

Thomas Vanek and Derek Roy are the big names on the list that include Paetsch, Dan Paille and Andro Peters.

Vanek’s regular season efforts have earned him a significant raise. If the Sabres go any higher than an average of $3 million over three-to-four years, then it would be too high. Luckily Vanek is not eligible for arbitration because that would be very bad news for the club, considering what outrageous figures arbitrators were awarding last year. Since the Vanek family is expecting a child later this summer, there are rumors that he is moving to Western New York so he may be willing to just get a contract done quickly so his girlfriend has a chance to settle in without any problems.

Roy will also get a hefty raise from his $627,000 base salary. I’d expect him to rake in somewhere in the million dollar range for the next three years. He’s a lock to be back with the team.

The Fourth Line

Paul Gaustad clearly wasn’t 100% after he had a few games under his belt, which seriously hurt the team’s ability to forecheck and change momentum. Couple that with the fact that Mair forgot how to hit, and the “fourth line” was useless in the Ottawa series. Peters isn’t the answer for anything except, “Who’s the worst skater on the team?” Instead of a one-dimensional fighter who will only sit the bench come playoff time, why not bring in a player who not only has the ability to fight but can also skate and isn’t afraid to throw the body around and crash the boards. I’ve trolled various message boards and one player that many think seems to fit the bill is Martin Gelinas.

TSN’s scouting report says that Gelinas “skates well and is difficult to knock off the puck. Can score goals in streaks. Is a good penalty-killer and forechecker. Goes all out every night.” He sounds like exactly what the Sabres were missing in the Ottawa series. He’s got enough toughness and grit to make a difference, even if it means Paille sitting another year. He made $975,000 last season and is an unrestricted free agent come July 1.

Mair is unrestricted as well and has said that he would love to come back to play for the Sabres. He was stuck playing with Peters last season, which seriously hurt his game, but even when Gaustad returned to the fourth line in the playoffs, he didn’t do much of anything. He’d be a good depth addition and brings experience and grit to the team, but if his last few games are any indication, then his best days are well behind him.

The Back Up

Ty Conklin comes cheap at under a million a year and the Sabres like him. I’d like to see him under Jim Corsi’s wing for a full year and see if he can make a real goalie out of him. Other options include Brian Boucher and Curtis Joseph, but it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to grow a playoff beard as sweet as Ty’s.

The New Guys

It’s time for Drew Stafford to be a regular. NHL.com is already selling Stafford T-Shirt jerseys. He’s this year’s Pominville after only one year of professional hockey. He can be a big time contributor on a top three line and that can really only happen if Ales Kotalik is shipped out. Kotalik has shown to be an inconsistent talent with a helluva one-timer. He can throw around the body when he feels like it, but for $5 million over the next two seasons, I’d like to see him become some other team’s problem. At that money, we could have kept Dumont, but what can you do?

Dainius Zubrus wanted a big contract extension from Washington and they decided they weren’t going to give it to him, they moved him for a first rounder and Jiri Novotny. Since the season finished, Zubrus has said that he’d like to stay in Buffalo and continue to play for a winner. I’m all for that. He was a beast in the playoffs until a knee injury put him out of commission. However, with the off season surgery a possibility, will the Sabres want to throw a lot of money on another injury-prone player, as they did with Connolly?