Odd Man Out

by Rich

There are a lot of things that could impact Game 3 of the World Series tonight.

Josh Fogg has been a horse so far in the playoffs, and also seemed to make every big start during the Rockies' improbable run to close out the regular season. If ever there was a "stopper" Colorado could turn to down 0-2 with a realistic hope of putting them back in this series, it's Fogg.

On the other side, there's the $100-million-dollar-question-mark that is Dice-K. He may throw 8 shutout innings, or he may get pounded for 7 in 2.1 innings. Neither would surprise me all that much.

Additionally, the outfield dimensions in Coors Field are, like, a square mile bigger than Fenway. Ellsbury has a lot of range in center, but J.D. Drew is sort of an unknown in right field. And let's face it, Manny will probably think that he's in the parking lot.

But has any of this been mentioned? Not really. Apparently the only thing that could have any impact on this game is Terry Francona's decision to sit Kevin Youkilis. It seems a little silly to me how much is being made of this decision. Here are the lifetime stats against Josh Fogg for the three guys concerned:

David Ortiz: 3/6, 0 XBH
Mike Lowell: 6/16, 1 double, 1 HR
Kevin Youkilis: 2/3, 1 double

As you can see, there's not a whole lot of history there. Lowell's hitting .375 off of Fogg, mainly from his days in Dade County with the Marlins. Youk and Papi have had decent success against him also, but also have fewer than 10 AB's combined against him. Sample sizes that small tell you very little.

The bottom line is that Terry Francona is doing what he sees as best for the club, and it's sort of hard to argue with him. And really, what are his alternatives? He could:

A) Play Ortiz and Lowell, and sit Youkilis

This makes sense, and it's what he's decided to do, at least for Game 3. Give Ortiz at least three at-bats, bring Youkilis in as a defensive replacement/pinch hitter, and see what happens. If Papi's knee can't hold up to playing six or seven innings in the field, then obviously he would come off the bench in Game 4.

B) Sit Ortiz, play Lowell and Youkilis.

This is the best option defensively, and it probably wouldn't hurt Boston too much from an offensive standpoint either. Youkilis is the only full-time first baseman in the game not to commit an error this season, and Lowell is only the best-fielding third baseman ever. The problem with this is that you simply can't bench David Ortiz in the World Series. The guy is the heart and soul of that franchise; if getting his bat in the lineup means 2 games of subpar defense at first? So be it.

C) Sit Lowell, play Youkilis at 3rd and Ortiz at first.

I heard this one suggested a couple of times, and...it's just not that smart. Youkilis is a good defensive first baseman, but he's not nearly as good at the hot corner. This arrangement would not only be benching the guy with the highest career fielding percentage ever at third, but it'd be doing so for a minimal offensive upgrade:

Youkilis: .288/.390/.453 with 16 homers, 83 RBI
Lowell: .324/.378/.501 with 21 homers, 120 RBI

Yeah, benching Lowell for Youk would be a great idea, if you're a Rockies fan.

D) Play all three (Lowell at third, Ortiz at first, Youkilis in right field, bench J.D. Drew)

This is just a bad idea. I know that hating on Drew is the trendiest thing since Ugg boots, but he's hit pretty well lately. Not to mention the fact that playing in a huge outfield with Manny, a rookie in center, and a corner infielder in right is probably not a good approach to take to your outfield defense.


With all that being said, I can't find any reason to second-guess Tito for this decision. Besides, no matter who you have to sit, isn't the bigger "decision" going to be whether or not the Rockies decide to throw the ball over the plate tonight?

World Series Preview: Game One

by Rich

As you probably already know, there is only...one...October! < /Dane Cook> . Sorry. Apparently I'm legally required to include a reference to those commercials in every post concerning the playoffs, just like every other blogger in the country.

Anyhow, regular readers may remember that I previewed both NL Division Series at the beginning of the playoffs. Then I didn't post the AL one in time, and midterms precluded me from covering the LCS. Probably a good thing, considering I picked the Phillies in 4 and the Cubs in 3...oops.

But fear not, baseball fans: I am here to preview the Fall Classic one game at a time, from first pitch to champaign shower. As always, I will include my suggestion that these predictions be accompanied by salt, as well as lime and tequila. We'll start, well...at the beginning, I suppose, with the Game One starters:

Josh Beckett has been "The Man," "lights out," or simply "wicked awesome" depending on where you live (unless that's Cleveland or Anaheim). Here's the point: In this postseason, Beckett is 3-0 in three starts. He has an ERA of 1.17 over 23 innings. In those 23 innings, he's allowed 13 hits and one walk while striking out 26. The guy is a monster, AND he's 4-1 career against the Rockies. Critics will point out that the one loss came during the Rockies' interleague series with the Sox this year, but the fact of the matter is that this guy is on another level right now. As a note of interest: although JB19 has done very well against the Rockies in his career, Holiday, Helton and Atkins are all hitting over .300 in their careers against him (6/14, 4/12, 6/10 respectively, in case you were wondering about sample size). We'll see if that's just good luck within a small number of at bats or if these guys can really hit the Cy favorite.

Jeff Francis is sorta...The Other Guy. Don't get me wrong, he put together a really nice season this year (17 wins, 165 K's in the regular season) and has won his only start in each round of the postseason, but in this case, he's just a good pitcher going up against a great one who happens to be in the middle of one of the best playoff runs in recent memory. If he has a good outing and so does Beckett, he still loses. Nobody is hoping that Holiday, Helton, and Atkins are able to hit Beckett more than Jeff Francis.

Miscellaneous Things of Interest:

• Youkilis and Pedroia contributed a ton to the Red Sox comeback against the Indians, and if they can continue to get on base, somebody in that lineup will be able to drive them in.
• There's the obvious question of how the longest layoff ever between an LCS and a World Series has affected the Rockies. Nobody knows. They might come out flat and get stomped, or blow Beckett onto the Mass Pike. Hell, they might be on either side of a 20-inning game for all I know. But my gut says that they're like George Mason in the Final Four. They've had a long time to sit around and realize where they are and what's going on, and that's never good for Cinderella.

Bottom Line: Boston has more talent than Colorado. They're the better team, but that doesn't always matter in October (see also: 2006 St. Louis Cardinals). The postseason is a crapshoot, but if you have to roll the dice, I'd be much happier going to war with Josh Beckett than anyone on Colorado's roster.

Padres/Rockies Live Blog

by Rich

In honor of the Padres and Rockies going that extra mile to bring us one more game of baseball this season, we're unveiling a new wrinkle: Live blogging. I mean, there's no way I was missing this game so...why not blog it, right?



7:32 : I am jacked and ready for the one-game playoff! Coors Field is sold out, possibly for the first time ever. It's October baseball in Colorado, which means....alright, you got me. I have no idea what that means. But I'm guessing a decent number of Rockies fans are going home happy no matter what happens.

7:41 : Not the greatest effort in right field as Hawpe butchers a catch. After a few text messages are exchanged with a friend across the country, we decide that at least 20% of the crowd is high. Hope your concession stands are stocked, Coors Field.

7:44 : Fogg gets Adrian Gonzalez swinging on a nice pitch to end the inning. He leaves the mound with a fist pump as the home crowd roars. Unfortunately, they are not cheering because of the emotional lift of an inning-ending strikeout, but rather because the ball, like, totally just went like that, man. Did you see that? It was crazy.

7:46 : Holy crap, Kaz Matsui is still in professional baseball? Ah, the National League. If it weren't for the playoffs, I wouldn't know you exist. And yes, I do live in an NL city.

7:47 : Alright, Kaz. You made your point. Leadoff double.

7:50 :After Tulozitzki reaches, Matt Holliday is greeted with chants of M-V-P, M-V-P. Peavy walks him to load the bases for Todd Helton, who is sporting a Youkilis-like face-squirrel goatee. 1-0 Rockies on a Helton sac fly. What happened to his power?

7:55 : 2-0 Rockies as Tulowitzki is singled home by Atkins. Peavy is throwing a lot of pitches so far...they're not exactly getting hit hard, but everything's flat and in the middle of the plate.

7:57 : Who the hell is Ryan Spilborghs? I mean, he flied out to end the inning so I guess it doesn't matter.

8:00 : Can someone explain to me why MLB has Dane Cook shilling the playoffs? I really would like to know. Also, Khalil Greene looks completely clueless at the plate.

Josh Fogg came into this game as "The guy who's pitching...no, not Peavy." Two innings, two hits, three strikeouts. Not a bad start for "the other guy."

8:06 : TBS lets us know that the ball has a tendency to carry in Coors Field. Thanks guys, I had no idea.

8:09 : I just watched Johan Santana teach his changeup to a right-handed girl at the Boys and Girls club. Well, if you hear about some 12 year old going 53-0 with 690 strikeouts in her junior high's softball league next year...you'll know what's up.

8:10 : His name is Yorvit Torrealba! 3-0 Rockies. Wait a second, are they really playing the music from those 6 Flags commercials? I swear, if that creepy old guy in the tux appears and starts dancing, I'm out of here.

8:16 : Batting to lead off the inning, Peavy loses his bat into the crowd swinging at the first pitch. The camera cuts to Josh Fogg laughing. No word if anyone died when the bat flew into the stands. Oh, and Peavy singled.

8:21 : Fogg could be in some trouble as Peavy's single, a walk, and a bloop hit by Scott Hairston have loaded the bases with no outs for Kevin Kouzmanoff...who promptly flies out. Peavy doesn't try to score, even though he could've walked home.

8:23 : Well, I guess that didn't matter too much. Adrian Gonzalez just bombed a grand slam to right. 4-3 Padres.

8:25 : This could be snowballing quickly, a "Hey-that-chick-looks-like-Khalil-Greene" single followed by a double by Josh Bard, and Geoff Blum gets a free pass to load the bases and put the double play into effect.

8:27 : A lame throw from Matsui keeps the Rockies from turning an inning-ending DP. Instead, it's 5-3 SD with 2 outs. Peavy lines out to second in his second at bat of the inning. Shudder.

8:30 : Thanks, TBS. I would have had no idea who this "Cal Ripken" guy providing analysis is were it not for your helpful highlight package. Evidently he was a player of some consequence for a few years? If you'll excuse me, I'm going to go slam my head in a car door.

8:34 : Todd Helton metahporically suggests I go to hell by hitting a ball right about where Gonzalez did for a solo jack. 5-4 Pads, and cue the 6 Flags music.

8:38 : Remember a couple of innings ago when I asked who Ryan Spilborghs is? He's the guy who comes to bat to Gwen Stefani. Oh, and apparently flying out to kill a rally is his other "thing."

8:43 : The home crowd boos San Diego's Scott Hairston for calling time on a 1-2 pitch before striking out. Either these Rockies fans are feistier than I thought, or their collective contact high is fading early because the first few innings have been so long.

8:45 : Fogg looks like he's back on track, getting the last two batters looking to wrap up his first 1-2-3 inning of the night.

8:50 : Peavy also looks to have gathered himself pretty well, and gets his first 1-2-3 inning.

8:53 : The Rockies' outfielders do play their home games in this park, right? Brad Hawpe just butchered another read in right, and it'll chase Fogg from the game as Gonzalez leads off with a cheap double.

8:55 : Did I just hear "Where Padres reliever Trevor Hoffman breaks down how to pitch with Alyssa Milano?" Once again, what the hell, TBS? Who is this meant for? I blame Ted Turner.

9:05 : Brady Clark misplayed that crap out of that ball to put a runner on second to lead off the inning.

9:06 : MVP, MVP indeed. Nice hit. 5-5.

9:10 : Peavy might not be totally on tonight, but he can still make a nasty pitch for strike three when he has to.

9:13 : Ryan Spilborghs continues to impress, striking out with 2 men on to end the inning. Is it too late for his valiant run at the J.D. Drew LVP Award?

9:18: Jake Peavy just popped up while failing to bunt. The Rockies respond by going to the bullpen again.

9:20 : Holy crap. A Jeremy Affeldt sighting.

9:27 : And with that, he is gone. Back to the pen from whence he emerged.

9:30: Random Rockies Reliever #2 ends the inning with a strikeout. Solid performance so far from the pen. Which I guess is a good thing, because I think I just heard the announcers say that they have 23 pitchers on their roster tonight. Ah, September call-ups.

9:35 : Someone named Seth Smith just hit a pinch-hit one out triple for the Rockies in his 8th at-bat of the year. That's great, I'm happy for the guy, but...shouldn't the Rockies have someone, I dunno, better than that to throw out there in a win-or-go-home game?

9:37: Kaz Matsui sac fly scores Smith. 6-5 Rockies, and all jokes aside, the Launching Pad is decently loud

9:39 : Okay, Brady Clark should not be playing center field. That's the second ball this inning that was hit dead to him yet somehow ended up bouncing back past him for a triple. This one puts Tolowitzki on third for Holliday (MVP, MVP). Was that a guy ripping a bong in the center field bleachers? Maybe he's smoking Clark out between innings. That's pretty much the only explanation for his god awful play in center tonight.

Holliday strikes out. But it's still 6-5 at the end of 6.

9:44 : Man, Latroy Hawkins? This Rockies bullpen is a veritable "who's who" of veteran relievers. Okay, maybe not. Maybe more like "hey, I sorta remember that guy!" Either way, they're getting the job done so far.

9:49: Hawkins gets a tall blond girl who's pinch hitting to strike out looking. Oh, wait. That wasn't a pinch hitter, it was still Khalil Greene. Sorry, my bad.

9:56: Holliday hits a ball off the top of the wall; the umps huddle to determine if it's a double or a homer, then give the universal "I have no idea" signal by shrugging and then ruling it a double. Clearly the best of the best are working this game Looks like that'll do it for Peavy after 6 1/3 and 118 pitches.

10:02 : Heath Bell is now pitching for the Padres. Apparently he's their setup man. Couldn't prove it by me. Also, our boy Spilborghs The Rally-Killer is up. I assume he's going to hit into a double-play, cause...that''s what he does. End innings. Although he's apparently hitting .341 with RISP? There are lies, damned lies, and statistics that say Ryan Spilborghs doesn't suck.

10:05 : Wow. I'm impressed. Spilborghs just struck out. For the first time all game, his at bat does not end the inning. You know your expectations are low when you're impressed if a player makes only one out in his at-bat. L-V-P, L-V-P!

10:08 : Alright, now I believe that Heath Bell is a legit setup man. Nasty pitches to strike out Torrealba.

10:10 : I've never seen that Just for Men commercial before, but it really made my night. Alright, it wasn't even the commercial as much as just hearing Keith Hernandez say "I'm Keith Hernandez."

10:11 : Wow. TBS just interviewed a middle aged woman who claims to have seen Holliday's ball go over the wall for a home run. Thank you, TBS, for that "local cable access channel" moment.

10:14 : Hey, it's Michael Barrett. He looks much more comfortable in San Diego. Maybe because 270 pounds of Zambrano isn't trying to break his face here.

10:23 : The Matt Stairs impersonator on the mound looks annoyed after the ump calls ball four. This has been a strangely umpired game so far. A lot of questionable third strikes, and more than a few pitches that have you wondering "where did that one miss?"

10:24 : Kaz "The Other" Matsui tries to bunt, but instead takes out an old lady 70 rows down the left field line. Then does it again. Then advances the runner by chopping a ball back to the mound. Just textbook execution.

10:29 : MVP strikes out, followed by a cut to that Ripken guy, who concludes that the ball that was hit off the top of the wall may have been a home run. Or it may not have been. Riveting stuff, Cal.

10:30: The Rockies have turned the game over to their ostensible closer, some guy named Corpas. Isn't that Spanish/Latin for body? I'm sure there's a "warm bodies in the bullpen" joke in there somewhere, but...I'm not willing to look for it.

10:34 : Tulowitzki is a really good defensive shortstop. Lots of range, good balance, and enough arm to make plays look easy.

10:35: Why? Why will Chevy not let John Melloncamp go away? Thiiiis is ouuurrrr one game playoff. I hate everything.

10:36 : Dane Cook says something with emphasis. EMPHASIS!

10:37 : Helton leads off the inning. Did you know he was the quarterback at Tennessee immediately before Peyton? Fun fact. Also, I wish there was a mic somewhere in the outfield bleachers. You have any idea how many desperate phone calls are being made right now?

"Hey, what's up...you got anything?...No, no, what we got earlier was great, but uh...I'm at the Rockies game, and it's going to extras, so...yeah, could you stop by?"

10:37 : Helton strikes out. Heath Bell is tearing through the Rockies right now. Maybe he wants to get back to the dugout and call his guy.

10:40 : Now I know I'm tripping. There's a purple stegosaurus or something standing behind home plate.

10: 41 : Maybe it's a rhino?

10:42 : Somebody popped out. I don't remember who. There's a dog next to the dinosaur now. Is this really happening? Am I imagining this telecast?

10: 44 : Extra innings in an extra game. Yeah, that about fits the current theme. In other news, the "This Will Be A Memorable Game" factor just shot way up.

10:47 : Kaz Matsui just tripped while throwing someone out. I wonder why Mets fans ever hated him?

10:51 : Mike Cameron is in to pinch run. This game would have been very different if he'd been in center field all night.

10:53 : Barret singles, and things are looking rocky for Colorado. I...I'm sorry. I shouldn't have done that. Let's just move on.

10:56 : Mercifully, a broken-bat force at second ends the inning. We go to the bottom of the tenth.

11:00 : Coming back from commercials, they showed a cut of a bunch of kids wearing rally caps...does that work in a tie game?

11:02 : Long out from Sullivan, and Mike Cameron appears to be on life support in center field.

11:06 : End of the inning, followed by some incredibly detailed analysis in which Cal Ripken reminds us that the score is tied. We'd be lost without you, Iron Man.

11:08 : Hairston reaches on an error. That really better not be on Helton, because the throw was awful.

11:13 : Bunt, intentional walk, inning-ending 5-3 double play. Khalil Greene may think he's getting overtime if the game goes past midnight.

11:16 : Alright, seriously. What the hell is that thing, a rhino? It's staring at me. I can feel it.

11:18 : Actually, the thing behind home plate is a Triceratops, and his (her?) name is Dinger. Thank you, Wikipedia.

11:19 : There was some question if Padres pitcher Doug Brocail was healthy after he was shaken up fielding a Tulowitzki bunt earlier in the inning, but he's apparently still good enough to strike out Holliday.

11:24 : After a Helton walk, Jamey Carroll chases Brocail from the game with a single to right. He is replaced by the apparently Amish Joe Thatcher, who strikes out Hawpe to end the threat.

11:37 : Some kid whose name I didn't even hear just got caught looking with two men on for the Padres. Two out.

11:42 : Okay, I take back what I said about Barrett. I looked it up and he's been really bad since getting to San Diego. Conveniently, he backs up my new knowledge by grounding out to short to end the inning.

11:53 : After a completely uneventful bottom of the 12th, Jorge Julio comes into the game for Colorado. Apparently the broadcast mentioned that the Rockies traded BK Kim for Julio. I can't confirm this, because as soon as I heard Julio's name, I immediately sought refuge under a desk in a windowless room on the first floor of my house.

But hey, good for them. If the guy's better than a bucket of pine tar, he's worth more than BK.

11:55 : Slightly better than pine tar. Walks Giles, and the San Deagons (San Deigoans? San Deigoites?) have the leadoff man on for the third straight inning. Maybe this time it'll matter?

11:56 : Okay...much, much worse than pine tar. Hairston homers to left, and it's 8-6 San Diego. Trevor Hoffman starts warming up.

11:58 : Someone named Chase Headley singles, and Julio is removed from the game, presumably to set fire to the locker room. He's replaced by Ramon Ortiz. Man, the barely competent journeyman relievers just keep on comin', don't they?

12:04 : I'm going to be honest with you. I'm completely out of Khalil Greene jokes. I only planned for nine innings. Anyhow, he sandwiches a fly out between a Gonzalez strikeout, an Ensberg flyout, and about 37 shots of mortified Rockies fans contemplating the various merits of the noose and the tall building.

10:06 :The bottom of the 13th starts, but not until after we're jerked to another painful segment of "analysis" in which Calvin Edward breaks the news that the score is no longer tied. I really hope that TBS isn't going to continue trying to shoehorn these segments into the Division Series games, but I'm assuming the worst.

12:08 : Matsui against Hoffman to start off. Woof.

12:10 : What is this? Everybody I call out tonight comes through...maybe I should start calling out Kyle Wright ten or twenty times a day. Leadoff double to deep right for Matsui.

12:12 : Tulowitzki rips one juuuust foul down the first base line.

12:13 : Tulo doubles home Kaz, and this one ain't over yet. 8-7, tying run in scoring position, and MVP himself, Matt Holiday is up. There's just something about playing baseball in October, isn't there?

12:14 : Wow. Holiday triples home Tulowitzki, and the Rockies are 90 feet from the playoffs.

12:16 : An intentional walk robs us of the possibility of watching Mr. Rockies, Todd Helton, put the team into the playoffs for the first time in his 11-year career. Not that I'm arguing. I'd rather pitch to Jamey Carrol too.

12:18 : Fly ball to right field, medium deep, Holiday tags...throw's on the line but Barret can't hold it. Safe! Rockies win! Is Matt Holiday dead? What happened?

12:20 : Well, Holiday looks to be alive, but he also clearly didn't touch the plate. I guess it doesn't matter?

12:22 : They're still showing clips of Holiday not tagging home plate, but the game is over. I liked how Jamey Carrol was asked about Holiday's injury while celebrating, and he didn't know about it:

"Wait, Holiday's hurt? I didn't see anything, I was celebrating? What happened? Explain it to me."

I don't know why that seems so funny. Maybe I just need to go to sleep. In fact, that's what I'm going to do. Finance beckons at 7:30.

Hopefully you've enjoyed this little experiment as much as I enjoyed furiously typing for 30 seconds every 2-8 minutes for three hours. Up next on the Roost: Islanders Week!