Showing posts with label Fig Nuts Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fig Nuts Fantasy Football. Show all posts

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Fantasy Moneyball

by Ryan

So someone was looking at my phone earlier today and asked me, "What's 'Fudge Nuts Draft'?"

"Oh, that's Fig Nuts, one of my fantasy football leagues," I said referring to the event listed in my calender. Now I know what you are thinking, and yes, I used my phone's calender. But that's the only thing listed in my calender, and yes, it's that important.

Last year Jon posted about the Fig Nuts draft, but he left out my side of the story. You see, I took over a team from someone else, and because it was a keeper league, I inherited his player list. That... is probably the worst financial decision I have made in my life, and that includes Sabres playoff tickets.

The problem with inheriting a keeper league team is this: it's not your team. Sure, you get to pick three keepers out of his roster, but those aren't your players. Those three picks are nothing more than a greatest hits of some other guy's team, and no matter what you do it will never be anything more.

Another problem is that I did absolutely zero research, and while that works for just an ordinary draft, a keeper league is a whole different story. To put it simply, you need to know your s#$t.

An 18 round draft with 30 players off the board before it even begins. To go into that cold turkey is probably the stupidest thing you could possibly do, and of course I did it. This led to being the worst team in the league, and finishing in last place. I... I'm not proud of this, but that's the truth. My lack of preparation for that league was downright embarrassing.

This year it was going to be different. There was no way I was going to be ill-prepared for this keeper league anymore, and I was going to do whatever it took to make sure last place never happens again.

That's where Rich comes in.

I asked him if he wanted to give me a hand, and once the phrase co-owner came into the conversation he was on board. That conversation took an interesting tone, however. We each had other leagues, but we've never been co-owners before, let alone in a keeper league. We wanted to do things a bit... different.

Over the next few weeks, we studied. A lot. We looked at keeper options and guessed who everyone else would take. From those guesses we decided who was worth keeping, and what kind of philosophy we wanted our draft board to take. Depth charts, Top 200 lists, offensive line studies. We tried for days to imagine who would be out there, and what route to go. I won't get into details, but the AP sports wire came into play.

The past month I've studied fantasy football more than anything I've ever studied in my academic career. Ever. I'm sure my teachers will be proud.

In fact, we may have over prepared. The draft went down tonight, and this was the first time in my life I've ever felt prepared for anything. Tests, jobs, anything. The people we picked certainly made some people scratch their heads, but there was hours of research behind them, I promise.

Now that's not to say that things will go well this year. In fact, we may do awful again. However, we went at things a bit unusually, and I think that is going to pay off.

It's hard to explain, but we had a list of people we "liked", and if we could get those guys over the course of the draft, we would be happy. In a way it was like what Billy Beane did in Moneyball. We were looking for guys that could yield some decent return for us, and if a few of them failed, well, that usually happens anyway.

What we thought was this: why not take a guy you think will be better over a guy who other people like? Why should peer pressure matter when in the end you need to be satisfied with your own team? Take what you know, take what you think, and apply it to your draft. Once you get a solid group together, start going after the players you want to mess with.

It sounds logical, but it doesn't always play out that way. Think about what Jon said last year:

3) I will put too much thought into who will be available at my next pick. I can't tell you how many times I have waited one round too long for a player I want, only to have him snatched up three picks before me.


Screw that. If you like a guy, take him, even if that means a few odd glances. Who cares if Steve Smith is suspended for two games? It's Steve Smith! He's going to come back Week Three and rip a DB's face off! Doesn't anyone remember what happens when Steve Smith gets upset?

Again, this could turn out badly, but that's why we are talking about it here. The fact of the matter is that I finally walked away from a fantasy draft satisfied with who I picked, and my concerns with players were outweighed by the upside I feel they have. I guess we will come back to this in a few weeks to see how things are turning out, but at the very least we have a novel experiment going.

Hey, it's only a $20 league...

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Todd Collins for MVP


By Chris

Yes, I know the title is a little extreme. It's supposed to be. You see, that's the name of my fantasy football team and has been for quite some time. I even won the league this year. The reason Collins' name will be on the championship banner I raise from my buddy's garage in August? I own a Todd Collins blue #15 Buffalo Bills football jersey.

And, yes, I do wear it.

I was young, a bit naive (still am), so when my aunt and uncle wanted to get me a Bills jersey for Christmas, the answer seemed obvious. I didn't follow football all that well (I was in like third grade), but I knew Jim Kelly had retired and Todd Collins was the heir apparent to the K-Gun throne. So it made sense. Kind of.

So even after Wade Phillips came in and cut him, and he faded away into obscurity for the next decade, I never forgot about him, mainly because of the jersey. It was a nice joke for awhile. I was "that guy" with the super obscure jersey that you'd see and ask "why the %$*!$& does that guy have a #@%$&ing Todd Collins jersey?"

So when it was announced that Todd Collins was getting the start of the injured Jason Campbell for the Redskins a few weeks ago, I was more than pleasantly surprised. He did, after all, beat out Mark Brunell for the back up job so he had to have at least soooommme talent, right? Mark Brunell was good at one point (although he did lose his job in Jacksonville to Byron Leftwich, didn't he).

And then he started winning. Nothing flashy, but efficient and calm. He looked like a 37-year old veteran quarterback with decent vision and little mobility, but that's all Washington needed out of him. And it got them into the playoffs.

The ride is over now. Seattle rallied back and beat the 'Skins 35-14 yesterday on Wild Card Saturday. Collins finished with 50 (50!) pass attempts, completing just 29 of them (dropped balls aren't a stat kept on the sportsline.com Game Center, but there were plenty of them), threw for two touchdowns (one of them the result of a Kelly-esque no-huddle drive...a stretch I know), and two interceptions (both of which were returned for Seattle scores).

The bottom line is that, despite ten years between starts, Collins might have what it takes to actually be a serviceable quarterback in this league. If you need him to start in a pinch, he's capable of doing that as long as you don't ask him to do too much (like throw 50 times). I mean, that is why he's hung around on an NFL roster for so long, but he finally had his chance to prove it. A free agent this coming off season, if a team is desperate enough, Todd Collins has just shown this season that he can do the job if needed to.

Now that he's "good" it certainly isn't as fun to have a Bills Todd Collins jersey, but hey, that's why I've got a Quinn Early still in the closet.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Fantasy Football will be the death of me.....

By Jon

Tomorrow is the day that I look forward to more than nearly any other day of the calendar year. That's right ladies and gentlemen, tomorrow is the fifth annual Fig Nuts Fantasy Football Draft.

It's true, folks. I look forward to my Fantasy Football draft more than my birthday, Thanksgiving, and Chrismahanukwanzaakuh, combined. Most will argue that this is a testament to the sad life of which I call my own, and to be perfectly honest, I would be inclined to agree.

A bit of background on Fig Nuts Fantasy football. Started before the 2003 season, a few of my close friends and I started a league based out our hometown of Lockport. Our first season resulted in us scrambling for teams to participate on draft night, and we had a somewhat successful inaugural season with an eight-team league despite none of us knowing what the hell we were doing. The next year we expanded to ten teams, with us switching over to a keeper-league format last year. We had one opening this year, and had four or five candidates to fill that spot (None other than the Roost's own Ryan took that spot). We've come a long ways, and now owners show up to draft night with briefcases, laptops, and dozens of magazines.

I can't really tell you why I enjoy it so much. Truth be told, my Fantasy strength most certainly does not rest in my drafting abilities. Ask any of my league-mates how my quarterbacking trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, and Daunte Culpepper worked out last year. Note to self: Drafting players while thinking, "Hell, one of them has to pan out," is a god-awful strategy.

Furthermore, predictability will reign supreme. I can put a Goose's Roost guarantee that this is what will go down tomorrow night....

1) I will wait too long on a quarterback. Each year I convince myself that quarterbacks are a dime a dozen, and that I will be alright with a David Carr-esque QB leading my team.

2) I won't be prepared. Every single freakin year I promise myself that I will read up, make lists, and go in with a strategy. Guess how much preparation I have done. Zip. Zero. Zilch.

3) I will put too much thought into who will be available at my next pick. I can't tell you how many times I have waited one round too long for a player I want, only to have him snatched up three picks before me.

4) I will put far too little stock in tight ends, kickers, and defenses. Another note to self: A eighth-string wideout is not more important than a first string tight end.

5) I will be heavily distracted at some point. My ADD will kick in, and I will be forced to rush several picks as a result of not paying attention.

6) The team I criticize most will end up being the best team. Regardless of who it is, whomever picks the team that I deem the worst will win the league. Another reason why I suck at this game....

7) I will come out of the draft thinking I have the best team. I won't. Guaranteed.

Despite all of this, I am going to walk into the draft room being the cockiest piece of crap that I can be. I feel like this is my year. I felt like last year was my year, and the year before, and so on and so forth. That's what's great about Fantasy Football, every year is your year.

Now if only we could say that about our hometown team...